The Science of Climate Change

Bravus, aka. David Geelan has been trying to get me learn more about climate change. I have been reluctant mostly because I don't believe the science behind the claims. 'Believe' the science? I don't even really know the science. On that note I decided to subscribe to the Newsletter from the United Nations Climate Change Conference that is going on in Montreal. Here is something that caught my eye and makes me wonder if there isn't something to what they are saying. I need to find out more info before I commit that they are right about the solutions but the facts about certain changes that are going on in our world are starting to look more real to me.

Here is a link to the conference and this article: The Science of Climate Change

Here is the text of the article:

The Science of Climate Change

Dr. Francis Zwiers and Dr. Gordon McBeanEach year at the UN Climate Change Conference scientists review the latest trends in climate science. This year is no different. Thursday, scientists presented their latest perspectives on topics ranging from extreme temperature change to the impacts of climate change in the Arctic.

The evidence is now clear that the climate is changing in Canada and around the world, according to the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmosphere Sciences who cited the following facts:

* Over the past century, the globally averaged annual temperature increased by 0.6 °C and is now warmer than at any time in the last 1,000 years.
* Over the past 50 years, Canada has warmed faster than most other regions on the globe, with the greatest warming of more than 2 °C occurring in the McKenzie Basin.
* Projections are that the global mean temperatures will increase between 1.4 to 5.8 °C from 1990 to 2100. The warming over most of Canada is projected to be above that of the global average, especially during winter.
* In the Arctic, precipitation has increased by as much as 35% since 1950. The changes in precipitation are complex because the increase in average precipitation has also been accompanied by increases in both extreme precipitation and dryness in some regions.

“We would need to reduce emissions, not by 5% like the Kyoto Protocol is requesting, but by 75% by 2100 ... and that would only stabilize CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere,” according to Dr. Ken Denman, senior scientist, Fisheries and Oceans Canada.
Extreme Temperatures

Most of the trees were severely weighted with ice and quite a few snapped, Gander area on February 19 & 20, 2002The signs of extreme temperatures are increasingly evident globally: cold nights, warm nights, cold days, and the 2003 summer heat wave in Europe where temperatures of 40 °C resulted in 35,000 deaths. Dr. Francis Zwiers, of the Meteorological Service of Environment of Canada, explained this new reality by saying that “greenhouse gas emissions may have increased by four the risks of such events to occur”.
Warming in the Arctic

Nowhere is the impact of a rise in temperature more dramatic than in the Canadian Arctic.

“We cannot reject the possibility that the Arctic region is warming at least as fast as the most pessimistic scientific climate models,” said Dr. Louis Fortier, Scientific Director of ArcticNet, which is a network of centres of excellence in Canada that brings together scientists in the natural, human health and social sciences with their partners in Inuit organizations, northern communities, federal and provincial agencies and the private sector to study the impacts of climate change in the coastal Canadian Arctic.

Dr. Fortier pointed to a number of factors that may be causing the rapid warming that has been observed in the Arctic and is projected to continue into the future. Some of the key ones he cited from the PewCenter on Global Change include:

·The “ice-albedo feedback” which comes from the melting of polar ice over the Arctic Ocean and land surfaces. Such ice masses have a high albedo, meaning they reflect more incoming solar radiation than many other surfaces. As the Arcticwarms and the ice melts, the uncovered land or water has a lower albedo, or a lower reflectivity. As a result, more solar radiation is absorbed at the surface, which amplifies the warming effect;

* Natural variability in Arctic temperatures; and
* Transport of heat to the Arcticby the oceans.

The Future

The melting of ice masses in the Arctic could contribute significantly to global sea-level rise, while the addition of the fresh water to the salty oceans could change global ocean circulation patterns.

In the decades to come, the Arctic will be a region of even more change, with much of this occurring due to actions outside the region. Already communities throughout the Canadian Arctic are experiencing significant changes in environmental conditions. These changes are posing significant risks to the culture, livelihood, and health of northerners. Many of these changes are predicted to continue into the future, reinforcing the need for action now.

So what do you think about Climate Change or Global Warming?